CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of August 12th, 2025

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 170.1M head last week, down 1% w/w but 1.8% higher y/y. Whole birds and WOGs slipped to $1.24/lb, while white meat was mixed—boneless/skinless breasts rose $0.05 to $1.95/lb, tenderloins were flat, and wings edged up $0.01 to $1.72/lb. Boneless/skinless thigh meat fell $0.01 to $1.98/lb, and turkey markets were notably higher, with boneless breasts up 12% w/w. Egg prices declined 3% w/w.

Outlook: Seasonal softening in chicken markets is slowing, but potential tariff impacts could pressure export volumes. Steady domestic white meat demand may help support pricing; expect flat-to-lower trends until fall retail promotions resume.

Beef

CME AUG cattle futures advanced over 4% to $238.75/cwt. Choice cutout increased 5% to $378.94/cwt, with ribs and tenderloins driving gains. Loin complex movement was mixed—shortloins rose $0.47 to $8.00/lb, strips fell $0.18 to $8.21/lb, and tenderloins climbed $0.83 to $15.93/lb. Chucks and rounds posted across-the-board increases, and 50% trim surged $0.25 to $2.02/lb.

Outlook: Holiday buying ahead of Labor Day is supporting wholesale values, with early demand also emerging for year-end holiday cuts. Pricing for ribs and tenderloins is expected to remain firm through September before seasonal correction.

Pork

The pork cutout rose 2% to $116.33/cwt, with ribs, loins, and bellies strengthening. Bellies gained 6% w/w to $188.65/cwt, derind 13/17 bellies increased $0.16 to $2.26/lb, and loins added $0.07 to $1.35/lb. Butts and hams trended lower, and tenderloins slipped $0.10 to $1.88/lb. Futures and cash hog markets were mixed.

Outlook: Near-term pricing could turn mixed-to-lower as summer demand fades. Monitor belly markets closely given their volatility and potential impact on cutout values in Q4.

Seafood

Frozen cod filet prices dropped 12.6% m/m to $3.80/lb, hitting the projected floor ahead of schedule after consecutive monthly declines. Import volumes remain low, which could temper further downside. Market volatility has been elevated through 2025.

Outlook: Cod pricing is expected to stabilize near current levels through year-end, though supply chain disruptions could trigger renewed volatility. Forward coverage may be prudent for programs reliant on whitefish.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce prices surged to $25.49/carton due to light weights and disease pressure, reversing July’s pullback from its YTD high. Without stabilization, pricing could approach $35/carton by late October. In contrast, 48-count Hass avocados fell to their lowest level since January 2024 despite seasonal transitions and tariff concerns.

Outlook: Lettuce remains a high-risk category with potential for elevated costs into Q4. Avocado markets are expected to remain favorable into year-end, barring unexpected supply disruptions.

Dairy

CME cheese blocks rose $0.15 to $1.83/lb and barrels increased $0.12 to $1.80/lb. Butter prices declined $0.07 to $2.40/lb amid lighter retail demand, though tighter cream availability drove spot cream pricing higher. Milk production is seasonally low but adequate; cheese production is steady nationwide.

Outlook: Cheese pricing should remain firm into early fall on steady foodservice demand. Cream market tightness warrants monitoring for potential cost implications in butter and related products.

Grain

Grain futures posted modest w/w gains after recent weakness. Corn yield estimates rose to 184 bu/acre, with final projections possibly near 188, while strong demand supported prices despite supply growth. Soymeal rebounded moderately; wheat markets also firmed slightly.

Outlook: Higher yield projections could limit price rallies, but robust export demand should keep corn supported above $4/bushel. Strategic contracting could help secure favorable pricing for Q4 and Q1 2026 needs.