CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of November 11, 2025

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 172.7 million head last week — up slightly from the prior week and 3% year-over-year — keeping supply pressure on the market. The National Composite WOG held steady at $1.04/lb, while boneless/skinless breasts gained $0.03 to $1.14/lb. Tenderloins were flat at $1.40/lb, wings dipped $0.02 to $1.06/lb, and boneless thighs dropped $0.10 to $1.27/lb. Turkey markets were steady week-over-week, while large eggs rose 14% amid stronger holiday demand.

Outlook: Elevated production combined with slower consumption continues to cap poultry prices below seasonal norms. Operators and distributors should anticipate continued softness through November, with additional downside possible if consumer spending remains constrained by reduced SNAP benefits.

Beef

Live cattle futures fell sharply, with December contracts down 5% to $218.77/cwt, while the boxed beef cutout declined across most primals. Ribeyes dropped nearly $1.00/lb to $13.82/lb, tenderloins fell $1.32 to $19.50/lb, and end cuts weakened across the board. Loins were mixed, with shortloins gaining modestly. Ground beef stayed steady at $3.62/lb, and 50% trim moved higher to $1.83/lb.

Outlook: Market sentiment has turned bearish amid softer holiday demand and reduced retail buying activity. Expect further downside risk in premium cuts, while end meats could stabilize as packers rebalance carcass values. Distributors should prepare for short-term price adjustments through the remainder of November.

Pork

The pork complex continued to weaken, with the USDA cutout down 3% to $97.18/cwt. Bellies fell 9% to $140.08/cwt, driving additional pressure on bacon pricing. Loins and hams were lower, while pork butts were mixed. Export volumes fell week-over-week, and lean hog futures softened in tandem. Trimmings showed minor gains, with 42% trim up $0.08 to $0.90/lb.

Outlook: Ongoing export weakness and lower domestic demand suggest further downside in the near term. Processors and distributors should anticipate continued pressure on bellies and loins as the market digests excess supply and weak export interest.

Seafood

The frozen haddock market remained flat at $3.95/lb, maintaining near-record seasonal levels but showing limited upward movement. Year-over-year gains remain significant (+34%), though prices have plateaued since spring. Import volumes are rising ahead of winter, which should help balance the market.

Outlook: Haddock pricing is projected to hold steady through the remainder of 2025, providing predictable cost structures for operators and distributors. A gradual easing trend is expected in early 2026 as import availability improves.

Produce

Lettuce markets corrected lower after weeks of escalation. Iceberg prices dropped 21% week-over-week to roughly $40/carton, marking the first major pullback since September. Other lettuce varieties remained firm, while the tomato category — particularly romas — continued to trade below seasonal norms.

Outlook: Iceberg appears to be nearing its seasonal peak, with pricing expected to stabilize or drift lower into late November. Roma tomatoes should remain range-bound between $15–$20/carton before easing into early 2026. Distributors should monitor weather and regional transitions for supply stability.

Dairy

Dairy prices continued to retreat as production stayed robust. Butter dropped $0.14 to $1.47/lb, and both block and barrel cheese fell $0.11 to approximately $1.70/lb. Milk and cream availability remain high, supporting strong output and healthy inventories. Demand from retail and export channels was steady but not strong enough to absorb the supply surplus.

Outlook: Abundant milk production will likely keep butter and cheese prices soft through the month. Buyers should leverage current conditions to secure favorable pricing ahead of Q1 2026, when production schedules typically tighten seasonally.

Grain

Grain markets were volatile but finished mostly lower. Soybeans declined after China sourced from Brazil at discounted prices, tempering optimism following the U.S.–China trade truce. Wheat prices weakened as rumored Chinese purchases failed to materialize at scale, while corn slipped modestly amid yield uncertainty.

Outlook: Global trade competition continues to drive near-term volatility, but fundamentals suggest stable-to-lower grain costs heading into year-end. Supply chain stakeholders should expect moderate input cost relief across proteins and bakery-related categories through early 2026.