CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of October 28, 2025

Poultry

Weekly USDA young chicken harvest totaled 172.7 million head, down 1% week-over-week but 2.4% higher year-over-year, indicating continued supply strength. White meat values remain under pressure, with boneless/skinless breasts at $1.13/lb (-20% m/m) and tenderloins at $1.40/lb (-29% m/m). Wings, thighs, and drumsticks also declined, signaling a broad market correction. Turkey and egg pricing were steady week-over-week but remain sharply higher year-over-year, particularly for boneless turkey breasts (+273% YTD).

Outlook: The poultry complex is nearing a floor as demand begins to align with elevated production. Operators should expect moderate firming in Q4 tied to retail promotions and holiday volume, but long-term gains will remain capped by robust harvest levels and ample cold storage stocks.

Beef

Cattle futures trended 2–4% lower, but boxed beef values climbed, supported by strong seasonal demand. Choice beef rose 2% to $373.14/cwt, with key primals—ribs, loins, and tenderloins—posting firm gains ahead of holiday purchasing. End cuts and ground beef continued to strengthen, driven by steady foodservice demand and retail featuring. While increased Argentine imports briefly pressured live cattle markets, overall boxed beef fundamentals remain supportive.

Outlook: The beef cutout is positioned for continued strength through mid-November as retailers and exporters secure holiday supply. Buyers should prepare for persistent firmness in high-end primals while looking for potential softening in late Q4 as demand seasonally cools.

Pork

The pork cutout fell 3% to $99.71/cwt, led by declines in loins, bellies, and hams. Boneless loins were at $1.32/lb (-$0.04), while ribs and bellies weakened modestly. Tenderloins were the lone bright spot, inching up to $1.85/lb on export support. Trimming markets were mixed, with 72% lean trim down $0.09 week-over-week, signaling lighter domestic processing throughput.

Outlook: With exports showing growth but domestic demand lagging, buyers should anticipate additional short-term downside before the market stabilizes. Long-term, lower production in early 2026 could begin to tighten availability.

Seafood

Scallop prices continued to reflect significant softness, down nearly 40% month-over-month in July, marking a new four-year low. The decline follows typical seasonal trends, with prices bottoming midyear before modestly recovering through Q4. Import volumes have normalized, but demand remains uneven, keeping buyers cautious.

Outlook: The scallop market is expected to firm slightly through November as holiday menus and cold-weather demand pick up. Operators should anticipate modest short-term increases but stable long-term availability heading into early 2026.

Produce

Volatility persisted in the produce complex as cooler temperatures and regional transitions limited supply. Iceberg lettuce rose 16% week-over-week, reaching new YTD highs, while roma tomatoes spiked nearly 60%, erasing three weeks of prior declines. Avocado prices increased modestly to around $30/carton, marking their third week of gains since March.

Outlook: Short-term supply constraints and active demand will keep lettuce and tomato markets firm through November. Buyers should monitor transportation and regional harvest conditions closely, as further volatility is likely until desert crop volumes ramp up in December.

Dairy

Cheese and butter prices softened slightly across the CME complex. Blocks closed at $1.73/lb (-$0.04), barrels at $1.76/lb (-$0.02), and butter at $1.56/lb (-$0.03). Despite price weakness, export activity and domestic foodservice demand remain healthy, and inventories appear balanced across regions. Cream availability is high, keeping production steady.

Outlook: Dairy markets are expected to remain range-bound into November. Operators should anticipate stable pricing with limited downside, supported by consistent export demand and balanced inventories heading into the holiday season.

Grain

Corn, soybeans, and soybean meal all rallied last week, breaking through key resistance levels in a technical rebound. Corn’s move above its 100-day moving average signals renewed fund interest amid speculation of U.S.–China trade progress and a weaker U.S. dollar. Without a major fundamental shift, however, the rally appears speculative rather than demand-driven.

Outlook: Expect short-term firmness in grain prices but prepare for potential retracement if export data fails to confirm stronger demand. Procurement teams should evaluate near-term coverage before volatility increases around year-end trade reports.