CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of October 21, 2025

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 174 million head last week, down slightly week-over-week but 3.5% higher than the same period last year. The National Composite WOG price eased $0.02 to $1.04/lb, extending recent weakness across the category. Boneless/skinless breasts dropped $0.05 to $1.14/lb, while wings fell $0.07 to $1.10/lb—both roughly 30% lower month-over-month. Thighs also declined, with boneless/skinless at $1.60/lb (-$0.12) and bone-in at $0.70/lb (-$0.08). Turkey markets remain elevated, with boneless breasts up 270% year-to-date and whole birds up 60% year-over-year, while the egg index held flat week-over-week.

Outlook: Wholesale chicken prices are expected to remain under downward pressure amid elevated production and weaker retail support. Turkey markets could stay firm due to ongoing HPAI outbreaks, potentially tightening supply through the holiday season.

Beef

After several weeks of declines, beef prices have begun to stabilize. The Choice cutout climbed 1% to $366.11/cwt and Select reached $348.93/cwt. The striploin segment gained strength, with Choice strips up $0.53 to $9.14/lb—marking a return to midsummer levels. Top sirloins edged up to $5.03/lb, while tenderloins slipped $0.10 to $18.94/lb. Chuck rolls and shoulder clods both gained $0.09/lb, supported by steady retail and export demand. Ground beef (81%) advanced $0.25 to $3.45/lb, while 90% trim eased to $4.01/lb.

Outlook: Beef demand is firming ahead of the holiday season. Expect higher pricing momentum in premium cuts (ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips) as Q4 demand peaks, while end cuts and trim remain rangebound.

Pork

The pork cutout eased slightly to $102.17/cwt, pressured by weaker ham and picnic primals. Loins rose 3% to $95.59/cwt, supported by stronger boneless loin and baby back rib values. Butts were mixed, while ribs and bellies held flat. Ham prices fell 2% to $99.78/cwt amid reduced export activity, while trim values were stable.

Outlook: With exports slowing and domestic demand steady, the pork complex is expected to drift lower short-term. Procurement teams should monitor ham and belly pricing for potential value opportunities if weakness extends into November.

Seafood

Shrimp markets continue to show stability relative to other seafood proteins. After recovering much of 2023’s declines earlier this year, prices have plateaued through 2025. Balanced supply and stable retail demand have contained volatility.

Outlook: Shrimp prices may experience a modest seasonal uptick through late Q4 before softening early next year, consistent with historical patterns. Procurement teams should consider forward booking ahead of potential holiday-driven increases.

Produce

Lettuce pricing surged again, with 24-count iceberg cartons up another 16% week-over-week as supply shortages persist in western growing regions. Prices are projected to peak near $40/carton by mid-November. Tomato markets remained soft, with large Romas nearing $10/carton, though recent storms along Mexico’s Baja coast could temporarily disrupt harvest volumes and support prices. Outlook: Lettuce markets are expected to remain elevated until mid-November before correcting lower as transition crops come online. Tomato pricing should stabilize near $10, with upside risk tied to weather-related interruptions.

Dairy

The dairy complex traded mixed last week. CME butter declined $0.03 to $1.63/lb as producers prioritize retail production ahead of the holidays. Cheese blocks and barrels both rose to $1.77/lb. Milk output is strengthening as cooler weather boosts yields across most regions, and cheese production remains steady. Retail butter demand continues to outperform foodservice sales, while export interest for cheese has modestly improved.

Outlook: Expect steady-to-firm butter pricing as holiday production continues, while milk and cheese markets remain rangebound under balanced supply conditions.

Grain

Grains posted modest week-over-week gains, with soybeans finding technical support after a stronger-than-expected September crush report. Wheat futures also ticked higher, supported by short covering. Persistent U.S.–China trade tension remains a key headwind for export volumes.

Outlook: Soybean futures are likely to remain confined between $10 and $10.30 until new trade developments emerge. Buyers should maintain flexible procurement timelines as volatility risks increase heading into Q4.