Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
USDA young chicken harvest totaled 161.2M head, down 9.2% w/w but up 7.8% y/y. Boneless breasts dropped $0.17 to $1.65/lb, tenders slipped to $2.15/lb, and wings declined to $1.60/lb. Turkey markets were mixed, with boneless breasts up over 200% y/y.
Outlook: Poultry markets remain pressured with white meat trending lower while dark meat holds more stable. Expect ongoing fluctuations as supply and demand shift into October.
Beef
Choice cutout fell 4% to $385.81/cwt and select was down 5% to $361.31/cwt. Tenderloins hit another YTD high at $20.27/lb, while end cuts and ground beef softened, with 81% ground beef down $0.28 to $3.60/lb.
Outlook: Beef values continue to show mixed performance across primals. Seasonal demand shifts could create further volatility through the fall.
Pork
CME OCT hogs slipped 1% to $97.47/cwt, with the pork cutout down to $111.95/cwt. Hams and bellies weakened, while loins and ribs provided some lift. Trim values were mixed across categories.
Outlook: Pork markets remain unsettled, with weakness in certain primals offset by stability in others. Near-term pricing direction will depend on demand trends and international trade dynamics.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock dropped 10% m/m, extending a six-month slide and nearing a seven-year low. Broader seafood pricing remains weak across the category.
Outlook: Seafood markets remain under broad pressure, with some potential for modest seasonal improvement. Overall, pricing is expected to stay soft in the near term.
Produce
Roma tomatoes surged 31.7% w/w to $17.16/carton, their highest since January. Iceberg lettuce dropped again, nearing a YTD low just above $10/carton.
Outlook: Produce pricing continues to show sharp contrasts between crops. Expect ongoing volatility as seasonal supply pressures play out in Q4.
Dairy
CME blocks rose $0.06 to $1.68/lb while barrels held at $1.64/lb. Butter moved lower by $0.12 to $1.81/lb as production ramps up ahead of the holiday season.
Outlook: Dairy markets are showing steady-to-mixed movement with cheese holding firm and butter trending softer. Seasonal demand patterns will likely drive shifts over the next several weeks.
Grain
USDA raised corn harvest area by another 1.4M acres, keeping futures capped below $4.30 despite stronger export demand. Prices slipped after testing technical resistance.
Outlook: Grain markets remain quiet with limited upward momentum. Prices could continue to track sideways until new crop or export data shifts sentiment.
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