CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of September 16th, 2025

Poultry

Poultry markets remain broadly stable. Wings continue to command a premium as sports-driven demand peaks, while breast meat and tenders are balanced. Dark meat remains the most cost-effective channel, supporting operators seeking margin protection. Supply is adequate, but volatility can emerge quickly in high-demand SKUs like wings.

Outlook: Expect wing markets to remain firm through October. Breast and tenders should hold steady, while thighs and drumsticks offer a hedge against cost escalation. ArrowStream clients should model forward demand scenarios across categories to identify opportunities for reallocating volume into lower-cost cuts.

Beef

Beef markets are moderating post-summer, with middle meats easing from seasonal highs. Value cuts such as chucks, rounds, and grinds are gaining traction as menu strategies shift toward fall comfort items. Retail demand continues to provide a floor for grind pricing. Supply chains remain stable but margin pressure persists where grind demand is heavy.

Outlook: Chucks and rounds show slight downside potential in the near term, while grinds may remain supported by retail activity. ArrowStream forecasting indicates steady demand into Q4, reinforcing the need to secure coverage on braise-friendly cuts while closely monitoring grind cost exposure.

Pork

Pork is showing divergence by category. Bellies remain volatile, keeping bacon unpredictable, while loins and ribs continue to present strong relative value. Ham demand is steady with QSR and deli channels providing stability. Supply chains are functioning efficiently, though price volatility is driving elevated contract interest.

Outlook: Bacon will remain a risk factor, with potential for week-to-week price swings. Loins and ribs are expected to remain favorable for operators. ArrowStream analytics highlight the importance of forward contracting in ribs and hams while tracking belly volatility to guide procurement decisions.

Seafood

Seafood supply is steady across major categories. Whitefish and value-added fillets remain consistent, while shrimp markets are balanced but with premiums on preferred sizes. Operators continue to rely on portion-controlled programs to reduce labor and improve consistency across units.

Outlook: Stability is expected in the near term. Size-specific premiums may persist, but overall supply chain risk is limited. ArrowStream intelligence enables operators to track spec-by-spec exposure, ensuring accurate cost modeling and supplier performance validation.

Produce

Produce markets are steady with regional variability. Leafy greens are performing well out of Salinas, though weather remains a watchpoint. Tomatoes show regional differences, with smaller varieties tighter. Potatoes and onions are balanced as new-crop supply improves. Avocados remain adequate with sizing spreads, while berries continue to show inconsistency across districts.

Outlook: Leafy greens may firm slightly if heat affects quality. Tomatoes and berries remain unstable in the short term. ArrowStream forecasting tools allow operators to anticipate regional shifts and incorporate substitution planning into their supply chain models.

Dairy

Cheese is range-bound with stable block pricing. Butter is beginning to firm as holiday demand builds. Milk supplies remain adequate, providing stability to the category.

Outlook: Cheese should remain steady in the short term. Butter is projected to trend higher into Q4. ArrowStream data helps operators model the impact of butter increases across baked goods, desserts, and prepared items to mitigate risk exposure.

Grain

Grain markets are steady as harvest progress offsets logistics challenges. Flour pricing is stable overall, though delivered costs remain sensitive to regional freight rates.

Outlook: Expect sideways movement in the near term. Logistics will be the key variable for cost fluctuations. ArrowStream clients should monitor regional freight adjustments closely and model delivered cost scenarios across distribution lanes to protect supply chain budgets.