CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of September 9th, 2025

Poultry

Weekly harvest volumes rose 1.6% to 173.4M head. White meat pricing corrected sharply: boneless/skinless breasts dropped to $1.97/lb and tenderloins to $2.42/lb. Wings held at $1.73/lb, while large shell eggs remain nearly 40% below last year.

Outlook: Harvest increases combined with seasonal retail promotions could firm poultry demand in Q4. Ongoing tariff pressures inject market uncertainty, but with beef prices at record highs, substitution demand for chicken is poised to grow. ArrowStream users should expect near-term volatility but watch for firming values as promotional activity builds.

Beef

The CME OCT cattle contract slipped 1% to $236.95/cwt. The choice cutout closed flat at $414.21/cwt, while ribs gained (boneless HVY ribeye at $14.76/lb). Rounds were softer, with inside rounds down to $4.77/lb. Ground beef (81%) dropped to $3.90/lb, and 50% trim fell to $1.52/lb.

Outlook: Seasonal weakness across cutouts is expected into late September, though ribs and tenderloins will continue to show counter-seasonal strength as holiday demand ramps. Slowing harvest pace could add cost pressure later in Q4. Monitoring rib and trim spreads will be critical for planning.

Pork

The pork cutout climbed 2% to $113.32/cwt, supported by hams (+4%) and butts (+2%). Loins gained modestly, while ribs and bellies edged lower. Trimmings were mixed but leaned firmer, aided by international sales.

Outlook: With cash hog prices trending lower, pork cutouts may soften in the near term. Global demand remains a swing factor, particularly in hams. Supply chain stakeholders should track export activity closely to anticipate directional shifts in primals.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia prices collapsed to $1.52/lb, a 4.5-year low, following import volumes more than doubling over the summer. Prices have erased all 2024 gains.

Outlook: A modest recovery toward $1.60–$1.70/lb is possible, but structural import pressure will cap upside. Monitoring volume flows will be essential for anticipating pricing rebounds.

Produce

Avocados remained stable at $30/carton. Roma tomatoes declined again on strong Eastern U.S. and Mexico supply, while iceberg lettuce eased but is projected higher through October.

Outlook: Produce categories are stable overall, but iceberg lettuce presents near-term upside risk. Operators and distributors should prepare for firmer pricing into the fall transition period.

Dairy

Cheese blocks and barrels moved lower to $1.73/lb and $1.74/lb, respectively. Butter fell to $2.01/lb, though international demand remains consistent. Retail demand is steady while foodservice trails prior-year levels.

Outlook: Cheese markets are expected to remain under pressure given ample inventories. Butter demand from export markets will support pricing globally. Monitoring retail vs. foodservice pull will provide insight into Q4 direction.

Grain

U.S. corn export sales surged to 2.117MMT, a record seasonal high, driving three consecutive weeks of futures gains. Prices are approaching resistance near $4.30/bu.

Outlook: Without fresh bullish catalysts, corn momentum may stall. ArrowStream users should evaluate coverage strategies now, as international demand strength could create volatility if supply concerns resurface.