CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of September 2, 2025

Harvest dropped to 170.6M head, down 1% from last week but 1.9% higher year-over-year. Breasts gained to $2.03/lb, tenderloins retreated to $2.52/lb, and wings stabilized at $1.73/lb (still 25% below last year). Egg prices remain under pressure, down nearly 30% y/y.

Outlook: With seasonal retail promotions building into Q4, demand will strengthen, but tariff risk could dampen exports and pressure wholesale markets. Chains should evaluate contract coverage and monitor pricing trends closely.

Beef

Choice cutout rose to $414.41/cwt, supported by tenderloins ($18.62/lb) and ribs. Ground beef (81%) advanced to $4.16/lb, while trim was mixed—50% lean weakened to $1.60/lb, 90% lean edged higher to $4.33/lb.

Outlook: Expect softer cutout values post-Labor Day, partially offset by reduced harvest levels. Holiday-driven strength in premium primals should continue, signaling a need to manage procurement timing around tenderloins, ribs, and grinds.

Pork

Cutout values eased to $111.49/cwt, with strength in butts and ribs balanced by weaker loins, bellies, and trim. Lean hog cash prices continue trending lower.

Outlook: Near-term volatility and export headwinds suggest additional downside risk into October. Buyers should align purchasing strategies to mitigate volatility, especially across bacon and trim-heavy SKUs.

Seafood

Pollock extended its decline, down five consecutive months and 23% year-over-year. Imports hit a 31-year seasonal low, pointing to a potential short-lived price rebound.

Outlook: A modest recovery is expected in the coming months, but the rally window will be narrow—likely fading by November. Operators leveraging pollock should time procurement to capture short-term value before year-end softness.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce pricing nearly doubled over the past four weeks due to low yields. Tomatoes softened but remain set for seasonal firming. Avocados stabilized near $30/carton during Mexico’s crop transition.

Outlook: Lettuce markets will remain elevated into late December, creating cost risk for salad and sandwich programs. Tomatoes will trend higher into November, while avocados should remain stable, providing a more predictable category.

Dairy

Cheese markets closed steady at $1.78/lb, while butter fell sharply to $2.08/lb, extending its month-long decline. Export demand continues to support cheese competitiveness.

Outlook: Butter prices remain elevated versus historic averages, with risk of tighter supply as holiday retail demand pulls product from bulk channels. Strategic monitoring of butter and cheese values is essential for coverage decisions heading into Q4.

Grain

Spring wheat markets saw unusual midweek volatility before rebounding. Soybean oil reversed prior gains and is again testing its long-term moving average.

Outlook: Wheat fundamentals are stable for now, but upcoming Canadian crop reports could shift pricing. Soybean oil has historically rebounded from current levels, signaling near-term cost risk. Frying oil programs should be reviewed for coverage opportunities.