CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of August 19th, 2025

Poultry

USDA harvest volumes remain in line with last year, with whole birds and WOGs easing while breasts and wings show divergent trends — breasts climbing modestly, wings still significantly under year-ago levels. Thigh meat values held steady, though spreads remain wide compared to historical averages. Eggs continue to soften both week-over-week and year-over-year.

Outlook: The market is entering a seasonal slowdown, but tariffs on exports could accelerate price pressure in coming months. ArrowStream data models point to potential downside risk if export channels weaken, creating an environment where buyers should monitor breast and wing spreads closely.

Beef

Cattle futures trended sharply lower, yet boxed beef values firmed, with strength across ribs, loins, and end cuts. Tenderloins and ribeyes are carrying momentum into holiday buying, while ground beef and trim were more mixed with lean trim holding better than 50s.

Outlook: Expect continued counter-seasonal strength in premium cuts through Labor Day and into the year-end holiday season. ArrowStream forecasts highlight an opportunity for operators and distributors to plan programs now before tenderloin and rib values move higher into Q4.

Pork

The pork complex was mixed, with butts and ribs supported by international demand while hams and loins softened. Trims held relatively steady, though 42% slipped slightly. Export demand (notably for butts) was a key driver of last week’s gains.

Outlook: Global trade remains the primary wildcard, with tariffs likely to weigh on cash hogs and cutout values next month. ArrowStream models show elevated volatility risk across primals, suggesting that buyers should take advantage of current butt and rib pricing while preparing for softer ham values.

Seafood

Fresh Atlantic salmon pricing posted one of its sharpest drops in years, now down nearly 20% over three months to reach a four-year low. Imports remain elevated, driving the accelerated correction.

Outlook: While losses are expected to slow, ArrowStream analytics suggest salmon may not stabilize until October–November. Current lows create an opportunity for procurement teams to capture favorable pricing ahead of seasonal recovery.

Produce

After recent swings, produce markets showed stability. Iceberg lettuce flattened, easing concerns after last week’s surge. Roma tomatoes held steady but are projected higher into fall, while potatoes remain quiet, signaling the early end of pre-harvest strength.

Outlook: Seasonal volatility is expected to return in September–October. ArrowStream produce forecasts indicate operators should prepare for lettuce and tomato price pressure while expecting potatoes to trend lower through year-end.

Dairy

Cheese prices split directionally, with blocks easing and barrels firming, while butter saw the most significant decline on weaker foodservice demand. Seasonal milk tightness is limiting production flexibility, particularly for cheese manufacturers.

Outlook: Butter prices are likely to stay under pressure until late Q4, while cheese may stabilize on retail pull. ArrowStream’s dairy dashboards track these regional shifts in real time, helping supply chain teams adjust purchasing strategies accordingly.

Grain

The USDA’s WASDE report shocked markets by raising corn yield estimates sharply and expanding acreage, setting up a burdensome supply outlook. Soybeans moved in the opposite direction, tightening balance sheets and supporting prices.

Outlook: Corn will remain under pressure for the near term, with ample supply capping any meaningful recovery, while soybeans carry bullish potential into edible oil markets. ArrowStream forecasts highlight how these shifts could ripple into protein feed costs and fryer oil programs.