CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of May 20th, 2025

Poultry

Chicken prices moved higher across key categories. Boneless breasts gained $0.01 to reach $2.76/lb (+53% y/y), tenderloins rose $0.08 to $2.33/lb, and boneless thighs increased $0.06 to $2.37/lb. Wings extended their downward trend, falling $0.07 to $1.17/lb (–48% y/y). Whole birds and bone-in thighs were unchanged. Turkey markets remained elevated due to a 13% y/y decline in harvest volumes. Egg pricing held flat week-over-week.

Outlook: Poultry markets continue to show structural support, particularly for white meat cuts. Supply-side constraints and resilient demand may keep prices elevated. Wings remain a value-driven protein for cost-conscious menus.

Beef

CME live cattle futures declined, but boxed beef pricing moved higher. Choice cutout rose to $349.90/cwt (+1%), and select climbed to $339.20/cwt (+2%). Tenderloins and striploins posted moderate gains, while shortloins and top sirloins trended lower. Ground beef (81%) rose 5% to $3.48/lb, and trim values strengthened—50% up 7% to $1.19/lb; 90% lean reached $3.80/lb.

Outlook: Decreased harvest volumes continue to tighten supply and compress packer margins. Expect firm pricing conditions as seasonal demand increases and forward availability tightens.

Pork

Pork markets rallied, driven by export activity and domestic demand. Butts and ribs surged over 10% week-over-week. Boneless butts reached $1.59/lb, spareribs hit $1.69/lb, and tenderloins climbed to $1.85/lb. Bellies posted modest gains, while 42% and 72% trim values declined.

Outlook: Market fundamentals remain bullish. Operators should expect continued firmness in pork prices and monitor tariff dynamics as a potential risk factor in Q3.

Seafood

Tilapia climbed 7.9% m/m to ~$2/lb, reaching a seasonal peak. The category historically trends downward into late summer unless disrupted by counter-seasonal factors.

Outlook: Seasonal price softening is likely over the next quarter. Procurement teams should monitor for deviations tied to supply chain anomalies or demand shifts.

Produce

Roma tomatoes spiked 16.5% w/w to a seven-week high near $14/carton, driven by the transition from winter to summer crops. Avocados continued a controlled downward trend, while iceberg lettuce remained steady around $10.50/carton.

Outlook: Roma pricing may hold temporarily at elevated levels but is expected to ease as summer crop yields normalize. Broader produce categories remain stable with limited volatility expected in the near term.

Dairy

Cheese markets moved upward—CME blocks rose 3% to $1.90/lb, and barrels increased 2% to $1.82/lb. Butter edged up $0.01 to $2.33/lb. Milk supply remains strong, enabling processors to maintain consistent production schedules.

Outlook: Demand and production are aligned, keeping prices relatively stable. Monitoring shifts in foodservice demand will be key in assessing future volatility.

Grain

Corn markets fluctuated last week. Early weakness tied to planting pace and acreage expectations gave way to strength later in the week on the back of strong exports. CMY sales came in at 1.677 MMT, while NMY sales reached 509K MT.

Outlook: International demand continues to underpin the market. Domestic supply-side fundamentals suggest volatility will persist ahead of the June acreage report.