China’s Not-So-Scary Pork Problem

ArrowStream economist, David Maloni, reported this week that the USDA is forecasting China to import an additional 1.9 billion pounds of pork in 2020 due to African Swine Fever, noting that more than one third is expected to come from the U.S.

“But that should not cause anyone to panic,” said Maloni. “We’ve seen these types of pork export increases before as the chart illustrates, and price reaction has been notable but not overly scary – similar to our price expectation for 2020.”

What Are the Risks for 2020?

“But what could be scary is if the USDA is significantly understating Chinese pork imports for next year, which may be the biggest risk for the U.S. protein markets next year.”

China's Not-So-Scary Pork Problem


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